Risk Modeling, Fraud Detection, and the Cost of Being Wrong
In credit and market risk, well-calibrated probabilities support portfolio limits and hedges better than bold point forecasts. Reliability diagrams, Brier scores, and isotonic regression help. How do you communicate calibrated risk to stakeholders who prefer a single number?
Risk Modeling, Fraud Detection, and the Cost of Being Wrong
Fraudsters evolve quickly. Autoencoders, isolation forests, and graph neural networks capture novel patterns across merchants, devices, and accounts. Feedback loops from investigators sharpen models. Share your experience balancing false positives with investigator workload.